Duke v. Butler 2010: "Narrow Lead" And "Toss-Up" Are Not The Same

As we head to election day tomorrow, one of the ongoing tropes in the political media is that it's not possible to know who is favored in the Presidential election - that it is a "toss-up".

As a matter of analysis, the idea that this race is a coin flip is wrong.  Though the national polls show a slight Obama lead - slight enough to argue that the race is tied nationally - Obama, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, holds leads of at least 2 points in all the battleground states necessary for an electoral college victory except FL, NC, VA, and CO - trails only in VA and CO.

My point here is not to say that race isn't close - it is. Or to say that Romney can't win - he can.  But our political media's has not been able to deal with the concept of of a narrow but persistent lead. So I'm gonna provide a reference point.

If you are college basketball fan, you probably remember the 2010 National Championship game, where a scrappy mid-major program, Butler, lost by 2 points to Duke, the national power that everyone but Duke fans loves to hate.  As a Duke fan, I remember nervously watching a very close game, decided only when a last second three-quarter court shot by Butler's Gordon Heyward bounced off the rim.  So the game was close throughout.

But look at the play-by-play.  Butler led the game for just under 4 minutes of the entire contest total.  Butler never had a lead of more than 2 points, and Butler held its last lead at the 13:02 mark of the 2nd half.

The point?  Duke was narrowly leading virtually the entire game and was thus favored to win for most of the game. That did not preclude Butler from winning, as we know from the last minute of play, but it would have been an upset, even within the context of the game, had it happened.

This is directly related to Presidential race. It is not a "toss-up."  President Obama leads narrowly, but persistently, Mitt Romney has only led sporadically but he is can win. But it would be an upset. Just like if Heyward's shot hadn't bounced off the rim.